Data Science as a Bridge for Adapting to Climate Change

Through an accurate analysis of different databases, the organization seeks to establish relationships capable of understanding the countless environmental and social factors occurring in Cerá, especially relating to climatic information. With this, the possibility of creating provisions and scenarios that are capable of assessing the region’s climate risk is sought with the main objective of designing efficient adaptation policies for the most affected regions, mainly targeting the most vulnerable rural communities.

With this, CEPB seeks to analyze an extensive amount of available environmental and social data, such as:

Land degradation

Key variables: Soil carbon content, land covered by forest, arable cropland area, vegetation index;
Present state compared to years prior;
Examination of future trends (2030, 2050).

Photo: Disclosure / Ceará Water Resources Management Company (COGERH).
Photo taken in 2020 in the municipality of Quixadá, central region of the state and one of the cities that suffers from the process of desertification in several points.

Temperature changes

Any notable changes so far;
Future trends.

The graph above shows the increase in radiation and consequently the rise in temperatures. Regions such as Ceará, located in the Northeast of Brazil, will be one of the most affected, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Severity compared across locations

Ranking of municipalities in the study in terms of which ones will see the most impacts. We believe ranking them according to expected soil carbon content as a leading indicator of land degradation will be the most useful.

Photo: José dos Santos

Desertification

Examine present vegetation index and changes in vegetation;
Predict changes in soil carbon content;
Use changes in soil carbon content to identify areas that will be likely to experience desertification in the future.

Conservation Unities and Biodiversity Potential (species)

Review presence of conservation unities within the selected municipalities in the first fase of the Ceará Biodiversity Plan);
Review the biodiversity intactness as of 2005;
Use changes in forest cover and vegetation index to qualitatively suggest areas at risk for reduced biodiversity potential;
Quantitative analysis linked with qualitative analysis of local context.

We count on your help

For the work of collecting data, maintaining partnerships, communicating with affected communities in Ceará, meeting the demands of local agencies, governments, associations, as well as maintaining the entire CEPB team, we need your support. Let us help to assist the agency, governments and communities with the information necessary for adaptation policies to be created so that the most vulnerable people can maintain their livelihoods.

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